Pair #11643

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-NTAY

The Open Championship: Will Nick Taylor finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Nick Taylor
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 9600

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nick Taylor finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-NTAY

The Open Championship: Will Nick Taylor finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Nick Taylor
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 280

YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 0.8500
Last: 0.1600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nick Taylor finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -88.67% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1000 + ~$0.0134 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -92.90% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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