Pair #1163

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-MHOM

Valspar Championship: Will Max Homa make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Max Homa
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1232

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Max Homa makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-MHOM

Will Max Homa lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Max Homa
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7423

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Max Homa is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:19:26Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not logically guarantee making the cut (a player could theoretically collapse in Round 2 and miss the cut), and making the cut does not imply leading after Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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