Pair #11626

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-ARAI

Will Aaron Rai lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Aaron Rai
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 8589

YES ask: 0.0120
NO ask: 0.9910
Last: 0.0120

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Aaron Rai is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-ARAI

The Open Championship: Will Aaron Rai finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Aaron Rai
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1130

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Aaron Rai finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -79.57% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0710 + ~$0.0058 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -83.80% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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