Pair #11621

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-ARAI

The Open Championship: Will Aaron Rai finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Aaron Rai
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 8955

YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 0.8500
Last: 0.1600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aaron Rai finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-ARAI

The Open Championship: Will Aaron Rai finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Aaron Rai
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3748

YES ask: 0.3100
NO ask: 0.7000
Last: 0.3100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aaron Rai finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -96.74% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1600 + ~$0.0239 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -100.97% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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