Pair #11616

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-ANOV

The Open Championship: Will Andrew Novak finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Andrew Novak
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1637

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Andrew Novak finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-ANOV

The Open Championship: Will Andrew Novak finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Andrew Novak
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2402

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Andrew Novak finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -84.66% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0800 + ~$0.0112 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -88.89% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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