Pair #11614

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-KNAK

The Open Championship: Will Keita Nakajima make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Keita Nakajima
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 1219

YES ask: 0.5000
NO ask: 0.5200
Last: 0.5100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Keita Nakajima has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-KNAK

Will Keita Nakajima lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Keita Nakajima
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 8166

YES ask: 0.0080
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0050

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Keita Nakajima is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): >999% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.5280 + ~$0.0180 est. fees
Days to maturity: 2
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: >999% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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