Pair #1161

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-MHOM

Will Max Homa lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Max Homa
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7423

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

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Rules

If Max Homa is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-MHOM

Will Max Homa win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Max Homa
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 4121696

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Max Homa wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:19:26Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 at the Valspar has no logical connection to winning the Masters. These are entirely independent events at different tournaments.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0010
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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