Pair #11609

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-KNAK

The Open Championship: Will Keita Nakajima finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Keita Nakajima
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 6928

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keita Nakajima finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-KNAK

The Open Championship: Will Keita Nakajima make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Keita Nakajima
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 1219

YES ask: 0.5000
NO ask: 0.5200
Last: 0.5100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keita Nakajima has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.98% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4600 + ~$0.0202 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.21% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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