Pair #11599

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-HLI

The Open Championship: Will Hao-Tong Li finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Hao-Tong Li
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 5132

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hao-Tong Li finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-HLI

The Open Championship: Will Hao-Tong Li make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Hao-Tong Li
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 2366

YES ask: 0.5100
NO ask: 0.5000
Last: 0.5100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hao-Tong Li has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.97% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4800 + ~$0.0195 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.20% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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