Pair #1159

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-MHOM

Valspar Championship: Will Max Homa finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Max Homa
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4257

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Max Homa finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-MHOM

Valspar Championship: Will Max Homa finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Max Homa
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6004

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Max Homa finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:19:26Z

Reasoning: A top 10 finish is necessarily a top 20 finish. The reverse does not hold — finishing 11th-20th satisfies top 20 but not top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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