Pair #11585

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-HENG

The Open Championship: Will Harris English finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Harris English
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 4722

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Harris English finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-HENG

The Open Championship: Will Harris English finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Harris English
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1800

YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 0.7700
Last: 0.2500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Harris English finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -95.87% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1400 + ~$0.0200 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -100.10% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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