Pair #11581

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-WCLA

The Open Championship: Will Wyndham Clark finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Wyndham Clark
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 30954

YES ask: 0.3400
NO ask: 0.6700
Last: 0.3400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Wyndham Clark finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-WCLA

The Open Championship: Will Wyndham Clark make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Wyndham Clark
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 2358

YES ask: 0.7200
NO ask: 0.3000
Last: 0.7200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Wyndham Clark has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.92% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3900 + ~$0.0296 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.15% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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