Pair #11575

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-PREE

The Open Championship: Will Patrick Reed finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1065

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Reed finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-PREE

The Open Championship: Will Patrick Reed finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3952

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Reed finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP5 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP10 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -80.54% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0700 + ~$0.0141 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -84.77% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

Authenticate

← Back to review queue