Pair #11571

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-CSMI

Will Cameron Smith win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1386467

YES ask: 0.0050
NO ask: 0.9960
Last: 0.0050

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Cameron Smith wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-CSMI

The Open Championship: Will Cameron Smith make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 2173

YES ask: 0.5400
NO ask: 0.4700
Last: 0.5400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Cameron Smith has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOUR is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5360 + ~$0.0177 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

Authenticate

← Back to review queue