Pair #11570

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-CSMI

Will Cameron Smith lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 21312

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0060

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Smith is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-CSMI

Will Cameron Smith win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1386467

YES ask: 0.0050
NO ask: 0.9960
Last: 0.0050

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Smith wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -9.03% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0040 + ~$0.0004 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -13.26% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue