Pair #11569

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-CSMI

The Open Championship: Will Cameron Smith make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 2173

YES ask: 0.5400
NO ask: 0.4700
Last: 0.5400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Cameron Smith has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-CSMI

Will Cameron Smith lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 21312

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0060

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Cameron Smith is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): >999% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.4800 + ~$0.0181 est. fees
Days to maturity: 2
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: >999% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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