Pair #11567

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-CSMI

The Open Championship: Will Cameron Smith finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 6686

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Smith finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-CSMI

The Open Championship: Will Cameron Smith make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 2173

YES ask: 0.5400
NO ask: 0.4700
Last: 0.5400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Smith has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.92% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4000 + ~$0.0258 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.15% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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