Pair #11562

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-CSMI

The Open Championship: Will Cameron Smith finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2929

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Smith finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-CSMI

The Open Championship: Will Cameron Smith finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 6686

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Smith finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -87.78% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0900 + ~$0.0129 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -92.01% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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