Pair #11560

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-MPEN

Will Marco Penge win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 615993

YES ask: 0.0030
NO ask: 0.9980
Last: 0.0030

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-MPEN

The Open Championship: Will Marco Penge finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 985

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOUR is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1180 + ~$0.0075 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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