Pair #1156

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-MHOM

Valspar Championship: Will Max Homa finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Max Homa
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6004

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Max Homa finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-MHOM

Will Max Homa win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Max Homa
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 4121696

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Max Homa wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:19:26Z

Reasoning: These are events at different tournaments. Finishing top 20 at the Valspar has no logical bearing on winning the Masters, and vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0010
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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