Pair #11559

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-MPEN

Will Marco Penge lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2761

YES ask: 0.0070
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0060

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-MPEN

The Open Championship: Will Marco Penge finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 985

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -92.24% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1190 + ~$0.0075 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -96.47% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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