Pair #11532

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-SIM

The Open Championship: Will Sungjae Im finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3232

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sungjae Im finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-SIM

The Open Championship: Will Sungjae Im finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2656

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sungjae Im finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -82.60% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0800 + ~$0.0101 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -86.83% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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