Pair #11526

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-RFOX

The Open Championship: Will Ryan Fox finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Ryan Fox
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3983

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ryan Fox finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-RFOX

The Open Championship: Will Ryan Fox finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Ryan Fox
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 5110

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.8500
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ryan Fox finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -90.43% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1000 + ~$0.0155 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -94.66% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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