Pair #11522

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-SLOW

The Open Championship: Will Shane Lowry finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 7008

YES ask: 0.3200
NO ask: 0.6900
Last: 0.3200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-SLOW

The Open Championship: Will Shane Lowry make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 269

YES ask: 0.7200
NO ask: 0.3000
Last: 0.7200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.94% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4100 + ~$0.0291 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.17% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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