Pair #1152

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-NTAY

Valspar Championship: Will Nick Taylor finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Nick Taylor
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 348

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nick Taylor finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-NTAY

Will Nick Taylor win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Nick Taylor
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 1773252

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nick Taylor wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:19:06Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters Tournament has no logical connection to finishing top 10 at the Valspar Championship.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0010
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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