Pair #11515

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-THAT

The Open Championship: Will Tyrrell Hatton finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2389

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-THAT

The Open Championship: Will Tyrrell Hatton finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 8980

YES ask: 0.3500
NO ask: 0.6600
Last: 0.3500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP5 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.43% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2500 + ~$0.0222 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.66% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

Authenticate

← Back to review queue