Pair #115

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26ABROWN-DEN

What will be A.J. Brown's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 26664

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If A.J. Brown's next team is Denver before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-DEN

Will Denver have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?

Series: KXRECORDNFLBEST
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8493

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denver has the best regular season record in Pro Football in the 2026-27 Pro Football Season, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:01:45Z

Reasoning: Having the best NFL record has no logical connection to A.J. Brown's next team choice. These are independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -16.80% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0900
Days to maturity: 171
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -21.11% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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