Pair #11492

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JSPA

The Open Championship: Will J.J. Spaun finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 936

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.8700
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JSPA

The Open Championship: Will J.J. Spaun finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1704

YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 0.7400
Last: 0.2700

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -95.21% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1400 + ~$0.0217 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -99.44% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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