Pair #11488

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-CGOT

The Open Championship: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 28967

YES ask: 0.3500
NO ask: 0.6600
Last: 0.3500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-CGOT

The Open Championship: Will Chris Gotterup make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 1306

YES ask: 0.7100
NO ask: 0.3000
Last: 0.7200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.89% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3700 + ~$0.0301 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.12% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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