Pair #11479

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-TKIM

The Open Championship: Will Tom Kim make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 1394

YES ask: 0.7000
NO ask: 0.3200
Last: 0.7000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Kim has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-TOK

Will Tom Kim lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 42022

YES ask: 0.0220
NO ask: 0.9930
Last: 0.0220

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Kim is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): >999% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.3420 + ~$0.0167 est. fees
Days to maturity: 2
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: >999% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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