Pair #11478

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-TKIM

The Open Championship: Will Tom Kim finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 10383

YES ask: 0.3100
NO ask: 0.7000
Last: 0.3100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Kim finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-TKIM

The Open Championship: Will Tom Kim make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 1394

YES ask: 0.7000
NO ask: 0.3200
Last: 0.7000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Kim has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.95% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4000 + ~$0.0294 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.18% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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