Pair #11475

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-ABHA

The Open Championship: Will Akshay Bhatia finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 5705

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Akshay Bhatia finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-ABHA

The Open Championship: Will Akshay Bhatia make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 364

YES ask: 0.6200
NO ask: 0.4000
Last: 0.6100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Akshay Bhatia has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.95% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4300 + ~$0.0273 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.18% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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