Pair #11470

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-JNIE

Will Joaquin Niemann win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 742502

YES ask: 0.0130
NO ask: 0.9880
Last: 0.0130

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Joaquin Niemann wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-JNIE

The Open Championship: Will Joaquin Niemann finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3296

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Joaquin Niemann finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOUR is a strict subset of KXPGATOP5 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.63% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0580 + ~$0.0054 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.86% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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