Pair #11468

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-JNIE

The Open Championship: Will Joaquin Niemann finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3296

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joaquin Niemann finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JNIE

The Open Championship: Will Joaquin Niemann finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3182

YES ask: 0.2800
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joaquin Niemann finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP5 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -98.68% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2200 + ~$0.0181 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -102.91% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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