Pair #11448

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-SAT

Will Sahith Theegala lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Sahith Theegala
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 5365

YES ask: 0.0080
NO ask: 0.9950
Last: 0.0070

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sahith Theegala is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-STHE

The Open Championship: Will Sahith Theegala finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Sahith Theegala
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 340

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sahith Theegala finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -55.14% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0350 + ~$0.0030 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -59.37% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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