Pair #11440

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-BKOE

The Open Championship: Will Brooks Koepka finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 11967

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-BKOE

The Open Championship: Will Brooks Koepka make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 5971

YES ask: 0.5700
NO ask: 0.4500
Last: 0.5700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.94% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3800 + ~$0.0279 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.17% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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