Pair #11436

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-BHAR

The Open Championship: Will Brian Harman finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Brian Harman
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 6219

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brian Harman finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-BHAR

The Open Championship: Will Brian Harman make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Brian Harman
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 498

YES ask: 0.6300
NO ask: 0.3800
Last: 0.6300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brian Harman has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.97% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4300 + ~$0.0275 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.20% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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