Pair #11435

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-BHAR

The Open Championship: Will Brian Harman finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Brian Harman
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2282

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brian Harman finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-BHAR

The Open Championship: Will Brian Harman make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Brian Harman
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 498

YES ask: 0.6300
NO ask: 0.3800
Last: 0.6300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brian Harman has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.99% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5400 + ~$0.0221 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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