Pair #11433

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-BDEC

The Open Championship: Will Bryson DeChambeau finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 11630

YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 0.7600
Last: 0.2500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-BDEC

The Open Championship: Will Bryson DeChambeau make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 12743

YES ask: 0.6200
NO ask: 0.3900
Last: 0.6100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.94% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3800 + ~$0.0293 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.17% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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