Pair #1143

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-NTAY

Valspar Championship: Will Nick Taylor finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Nick Taylor
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 348

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nick Taylor finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-NTAY

Valspar Championship: Will Nick Taylor finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Nick Taylor
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 13831

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nick Taylor finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:19:06Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20. But finishing top 20 does not imply finishing top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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