Pair #11428

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-BDEC

The Open Championship: Will Bryson DeChambeau finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 7810

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.8700
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-BDEC

The Open Championship: Will Bryson DeChambeau finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 11630

YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 0.7600
Last: 0.2500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -94.12% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1200 + ~$0.0210 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -98.35% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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