Pair #11424

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-JRAH

The Open Championship: Will Jon Rahm finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1540

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.8300
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JRAH

The Open Championship: Will Jon Rahm finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 6593

YES ask: 0.4500
NO ask: 0.5600
Last: 0.4400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP5 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.56% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2800 + ~$0.0272 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.79% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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