Pair #11421

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JRAH

The Open Championship: Will Jon Rahm finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1584

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7200
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JRAH

The Open Championship: Will Jon Rahm finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 6593

YES ask: 0.4500
NO ask: 0.5600
Last: 0.4400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -97.58% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1700 + ~$0.0314 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -101.81% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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