Pair #11418

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-WKIM

Will Si Woo Kim lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Si Woo Kim
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 17990

YES ask: 0.0160
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0160

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Si Woo Kim is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-WKIM

The Open Championship: Will Si Woo Kim finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Si Woo Kim
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 5162

YES ask: 0.3600
NO ask: 0.6600
Last: 0.3500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Si Woo Kim finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.88% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3500 + ~$0.0168 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.11% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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