Pair #11416

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-WKIM

Will Si Woo Kim lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Si Woo Kim
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 17990

YES ask: 0.0160
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0160

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Si Woo Kim is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-WKIM

The Open Championship: Will Si Woo Kim finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Si Woo Kim
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3500

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Si Woo Kim finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -98.07% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1900 + ~$0.0119 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -102.30% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue