Pair #11415

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-WKIM

The Open Championship: Will Si Woo Kim finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Si Woo Kim
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3500

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Si Woo Kim finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-WKIM

The Open Championship: Will Si Woo Kim finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Si Woo Kim
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 5162

YES ask: 0.3600
NO ask: 0.6600
Last: 0.3500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Si Woo Kim finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -97.39% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1700 + ~$0.0269 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -101.62% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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