Pair #11410

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-RFOW

The Open Championship: Will Rickie Fowler finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Rickie Fowler
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 12164

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rickie Fowler finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-RFOW

The Open Championship: Will Rickie Fowler finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Rickie Fowler
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2143

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.7900
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rickie Fowler finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -92.77% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1200 + ~$0.0183 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -97.00% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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