Pair #1141

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-NTAY

Valspar Championship: Will Nick Taylor finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Nick Taylor
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 13831

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nick Taylor finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-NTAY

Will Nick Taylor win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Nick Taylor
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 1773252

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nick Taylor wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:19:06Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 at the Valspar Championship has no logical connection to winning the Masters Tournament. These are entirely separate events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.8610
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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