Pair #11404

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-PHAR

The Open Championship: Will Padraig Harrington make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Padraig Harrington
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 3248

YES ask: 0.4200
NO ask: 0.6000
Last: 0.4200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Padraig Harrington has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-PHAR

Will Padraig Harrington lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Padraig Harrington
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1404

YES ask: 0.0040
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0060

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Padraig Harrington is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): >999% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.6040 + ~$0.0171 est. fees
Days to maturity: 2
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: >999% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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