Pair #11403

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-PHAR

The Open Championship: Will Padraig Harrington finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Padraig Harrington
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 18458

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Padraig Harrington finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-PHAR

The Open Championship: Will Padraig Harrington make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Padraig Harrington
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 3248

YES ask: 0.4200
NO ask: 0.6000
Last: 0.4200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Padraig Harrington has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.86% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3600 + ~$0.0210 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.09% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-14T07:45:35Z

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